《大行報告》富瑞:資本管理仍是三大中資電訊股關鍵催化劑 首選中移動(00941.HK)
富瑞指市場關注三大中資電訊即將公布的派息及股票回購政策,認為三大電訊股都是「低價增長股」,因為它們都屬低於一倍的市盈增長率(PEG)和有吸引力的股息收益率。偏好順序保持不變:首選中移動(00941.HK),其次是中國電信(00728.HK)及中國聯通(00762.HK)。
富瑞認為,由2023年初步業績顯示,中國電信第四季度收入和淨利潤分別按年增長約8%和10%,略低於市場預期。而中國聯通第四季度服務收入和淨利潤分別按年增長約4%和37%,服務收入符合預期,惟淨利潤未達到富瑞預期。
至於派息政策方面,中移動和中國電信早前皆重申2023年派息率目標為70%或以上,中國聯通也提到過去幾年派息率上升,並承諾改善資本回報。富瑞預計2024年,三家公司的派息率將進一步提高,且預期每股收益將在2024年增加,從而提高每股股息和股息收益率。其中,中移動自1月15日起重新啟動股票回購計劃,已回購240萬股,估計平均價格為每股65港元,總計約1.55億港元。富瑞認為,國資委鼓勵中央企業進行股票回購,並將市值納入高級管理層的績效考核指標,而中移動已經樹立了良好的範例,料中國電信及中國聯通亦會考慮進行股票回購。
雲服務價格戰方面,富瑞認為電訊公司是唯一擁有網絡(5G、4G、寬帶和傳輸)和大量數據中心(約佔市場份額50%)的參與者,因此能夠向大型企業提供非常有競爭力的打包定價。其他雲服務提供商必須從電訊公司購買寬帶,部分還要租用其數據中心空間,因此電訊公司在成本上對競爭對手具有明顯且持續的優勢,預計2024年各電訊商於雲服務收入仍能實現30%以上的按年增長。
隨著中國5G和寬帶建設高峰期過去,預計資本支出將下降。富瑞預測,2024年三大電訊公司的綜合資本支出將按年下降7%,總資本支出與銷售額的比率將從2023年的約21%降至2024年的約19%。資本支出與銷售額比率下降意味著更好的自由現金流,從而提高了向股東返還資本的能力。
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