第一太平戴維斯料今年寫字樓租金跌5至10% 需求恢復速度仍不確定
第一太平戴維斯最新發表的2024年2月香港寫字樓租賃市場報告指出,香港寫字樓市場正面臨供應過剩和需求疲軟的雙重挑戰。金融行業疲軟和搬遷成本的上升是導致寫字樓需求不振的關鍵因素之一。
報告指,IPO市場大幅下滑,募集基金按年下跌55%。除了對沖基金和量化交易者在熊市中仍能夠獲利外,大部分金融公司都不願擴張業務。相比之下,保險公司受惠於通關後所帶來的業務增長,並在去年上半年積極擴張。然而,來自內地遊客的保費在下半年下降。不過,全年590億元數字仍比2019年高出36%。
另外,去年第四季各區甲級寫字樓的空置率大多上升。整體空置率期內更達到14.7%,淨空置面積總共1,030萬平方呎。此外,甲級寫字樓租金在同一季度下降了1.7%,全年總計下跌7.5%。
考慮搬遷的企業面臨著資本支出不斷上升的挑戰。僅僅是裝修和修補費用就可能達到每平方呎1,500至2,000元不等。對於尋求節省成本的企業來說,搬遷成了重大的財政負擔。
第一太平戴維斯表示,展望未來,寫字樓市場的需求恢復速度仍然不確定。在樂觀的情景下,內地企業和新興行業的逐步進駐可能會出現類似於2011年至2019年期間的情況,平均每年淨租面積約130萬平方呎。然而,即使在這種情況下,預計到2027年年底,寫字樓空置率也將達到17%。相反,如果需求波動大,空置率可能在2027年超過20%,類似於2018年至2022年的情況,平均每年淨租面積只有50萬平方呎。
第一太平戴維斯香港董事總經理及租務部主管劉偉基指出,目前的寫字樓淨空置面積為1,030萬平方呎,預計在2024年至2027年之間將增加800萬平方呎的供應。這些因素對租金水平產生了下行壓力。因此,他預計今年寫字樓租金將下降5至10%。
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