Gartner:到2027年電動車生產成本將低於燃油車
市場研究公司Gartner預計,到2027年,純電動車(BEVs)的平均生產成本將低於同級別的燃油車。不過,雖然生產成本的下降,但電池是電動車最昂貴的部分,電池成本會約佔車價約40%。
Gartner分析,製造商正尋求突破以減低成本,包括採用集中式汽車架構及引入巨型壓鑄機,這些創新有助於降低製造成本和組裝時間。美國市場領導者特斯拉(TSLA.US)已率先使用的巨型壓鑄機(gigapresses)能夠製造大型單件車輛底盤,簡化生產過程,減少機械人的工作量。
不過Gartner認為,新技術雖然可使電動車生產成本上與燃油車拉近,但同時部分電動車的維修成本將顯著增加。又預計到2027年,電動車車身和電池在嚴重事故後的平均維修成本將增加30%,可能會令遭受碰撞的車輛,更容易被認定為完全損毀,因為維修成本可能超過剩餘價值。
Gartner指出,如果,電動車降低生產成本,是以提高維修成本為代價,可能會令消費者反感,預計過去10年以來成立的約15%的電動車公司,到2027年將被收購或破產,汰弱留強。
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