《大行報告》中金:內地上周新房銷售續低位運行 剔除春節效應後2月新房銷售按年跌近四成
中金公司發報告指,中國房地產市場短期內仍面臨挑戰,需要耐心等待政策效果顯現。
中金指,於剔除春節效應後,2月新房銷售按年下跌近四成,二手房銷售也按年下跌逾一成。單計上周(2月26日至3月3日),50個城市的新房和15個城市的二手房銷售面積按周分別增長41%和24%,但與去年同樣是春節後的第二周比較,新房銷售面積則下跌32%,二手房下跌10%。
中金解釋,儘管近期一系列供需端調整政策可能在3月至4月帶動銷售按月有一定程度的好轉,但由於房價走勢反映出的市場預期改善程度不強,預計「小陽春」期間銷售難以出現超季節性表現。建議現時應密切關注兩會對地產的相關表態,在此之前,可先關注資產質量和盈利能力較穩健的優質紅利股,例如華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國國貿( 600007.SH)等。
物業管理板塊方面,中金建議可關注業績兌現情況。推薦華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK),亦推薦代建龍頭綠城管理控股(09979.HK)。
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