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惠譽:中國生豬養殖企業繼續面對產能過剩困局
惠譽評級表示,中國生豬養殖業的產能過剩或將持續至今年第二季度,令生豬價格及豬企的財務狀況承壓,致使大多數養殖企業無法擺脫虧損。部分大型豬企加大降產力度,可能會拉動生豬價格在下半年小幅回升,但不確定性依然高企。 生豬行業供應過剩拖累生豬平均價格,而出於維持市場龍頭地位及收回先期投資等因素,大型豬企縮減養殖規模的意願很低。這些企業擁有通暢的融資渠道,抵禦長期虧損的能力較強。另一方面,得益於較低的固定成本,一些小型生豬養殖企業即使在價格疲軟的情況下也能維持經營。 近期有跡象表明,生豬養殖行業的產能去化步伐正在加快。但惠譽認為,在經歷了2020年和2021年因非洲豬瘟導致生豬產能下探,投資激增的快速擴張後,大多數豬企仍未能扭虧為盈。未來一年,資金壓力會迫使一些成本效益較高的豬企降低產能,但可能仍無法扭轉供過於求的大局。 惠譽認為,生豬價格的未來走勢仍撲朔迷離。若去產能化提速,下半年的豬價或將出現溫和回升。
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