研報掘金丨東吳證券:鈞達股份短期盈利承壓,料2月底隨需求提升N型電池有望回升
東吳證券研報指出,考慮到產業價格下行+P型減值,鈞達股份(002865.SZ)短期盈利承壓,下調盈利預期,基於公司光伏電池龍頭地位,給予公司2024年18 倍PE,維持“買入”評級。公司2023年電池出貨29.96GW,同增179%;其中P型出貨9.38GW,N型出貨20.58GW。2023Q4出貨10.4GW,環增27%;其中P型出貨2.04GW,減值衝回後測算單瓦虧損約5分,是P型組件甩貨去庫,產業價格加速下跌所致;N型出貨8.37GW,環增47%,佔比約80%;考慮電費補貼扣除,測算單瓦盈虧平衡。2024Q1看1-2月電池價格處於低位,盈利持續承壓;預計2024年2月底隨需求提升,N型電池有望回升,帶動盈利修復。預計2024年N型出貨40-50GW,N型外銷行業領先。
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