《大行報告》中信証券:海底撈(06862.HK)業績略超預期 開店仍然謹慎
中信証券發表報告指,海底撈(06862.HK)發表盈利預告,顯示去年業績略超預期,收入、利潤均略超預期。海底撈預計2023年收入不低於414億元人民幣(下同),按年增長33.3%,好於該行預期406.3億元,預計全年持續經營業務淨利潤不低於44億元,按年增長168.7%,亦好於該行預期42.9億元,計算淨利潤率預計約10.6%,符合預期。今年以來公司同店增長繼續領先行業,經營效率有望維持,建議繼續關注開店節奏變化。報告稱,其同店增長持續領先行業,開店仍然謹慎。
中信証券指,基於謹慎考慮,下調海底撈2024至2025年開店數,但上調單店人工數量,並結合去年盈利預告,調整2023至2025年各年經調淨利潤預測分別至44.2億、48.7億及52.5億元,原預測為43億、52.1億及61.4億元。參考國際成熟餐飲公司如麥當勞(MCD.US)、百勝餐飲(YUM.US)、百勝中國(YUMC.US)、星巴克(SBUX.US)等穩態估值水平為20至30倍市盈率,對應業績增速為10%左右,給予對應2024年20倍市盈率,當前匯率下對應目標價19元,維持「買入」評級。
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