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《大行報告》中金:匯控(00005.HK)因特殊事項致業績波動 高股東回報邏輯不變
中金髮表報告指出,匯控(00005.HK)去年第四季經調口徑下,公司單季營收、撥備前利潤、稅前利潤分別按年增長6%、跌1%、升4%,全年分別按年增長21%、39%、41%;第四季經調稅前利潤小幅低於該行預期,主要來自淨息差及經營費用不及預期。報告口徑下,公司第四季歸母淨虧損2億美元,按年減少45億美元,主要來自58億美元特殊事項的影響。 該行認爲,匯控業績披露後股價反應負面主要來自四個方面,包括去年第四季淨利息收入不及市場預期且今年指引偏保守;上季營業費用不及市場預期且今年指引費用較高;交通銀行(03328.HK)減值的擔憂;公司並未對明年及更長期表現提供指引。 此外,該行指由於匯控淨利息收入及成本表現不及該行此前預期,下調其今年盈利預測5.7%至256.11億美元,同時引入明年盈利預測190.44億美元。該行認爲雖然公司是次業績低於市場預期,但公司資本狀況良好,高股東回報的邏輯不變,估計明年公司有形股本回報率(ROTE)仍能保持在12%,派息及股權回購具有可持續性。該行維持其「跑贏行業」評級和目標價76.5元不變。
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