《大行報告》中金:MSCI中國調整 關注對巨子生物(02367.HK)及聯想集團(00992.HK)等正面影響 三生製藥(01530.HK)及統一(00220.HK)等負面影響
中金發表報告指,MSCI公布季度審議結果,當中MSCI中國指數新增5間公司,剔出66間,並調整14間公司的自由流通因子,以及177間公司的納入股本數,因此成分股在指數內的權重產生變化,關注對巨子生物(02367.HK)、360數科(QFIN.US)及聯想集團(00992.HK)的正面影響;以及對三生製藥(01530.HK)、建滔積層板(01888.HK)、統一企業(00220.HK)與光大環境(00257.HK)的負面影響。
從時間安排上,所有調整將於2月29日收市後實施,3月1日正式生效。根據指數調整的歷史經驗來看,被動型資金為盡可能減少對於指數的追蹤誤差,通常會選在最後一天、即是2月29日調倉,因此往往會看到權重變動較大個股成交異常放大,特別在尾盤。相比之下,主動型資金則並不存在約束,可以選擇配置時點,建議關注部分流動性較差的個股潛在影響。
報告指,結果宣布後但正式實施之前,會有部分套利資金根據正式結果佈局,特別此前市場未完全預測的意外結果。不過需要注意,雖然被動資金在調整正式實施日必須按照權重變化進行調倉,但期間的股價實際變動未必與權重調整方向一致,反而更受提前套利資金與被動資金之間強弱對比影響,亦不乏新納入或權重增加個股在調整實施日股價下跌的情況。
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