《大行報告》匯豐研究降敏華控股(01999.HK)目標價至6.6元 現價已反映負面因素
匯豐研究發表報告,指敏華控股(01999.HK)本年至今股價已調整9.7%,相對於同業平均跌20%。該行將其跑贏的表現歸因於出口銷售改善(貢獻2023財年總收入35%)。由於美國聯儲局可能減息,該行預期海外家具零售市場將於今年下半年至明年復甦,預測敏華2024至2026財年各年出口銷售按年分別增長0%、15%及15%。
該行認為,在內房銷售及消費疲弱下,國內家具市場短期復甦機會有限,但相信行業龍頭可持續受惠於市場份額的增長,預期敏華2024至2026財年各年國內銷售分別按年增長16%、8%及7%。此外,公司派息比率自2019財年以來一直有所增長,於去年9月底止上半財年達58.7%(包括回購在內)。基於目前股價,該行預期公司2025財年股息率可達7.7%,領先同業。由於公司目前股價相當於2025財年預測市盈率約7.8倍,估值吸引。
另外,該行將敏華的2025及2026財年收入預測下調4%及8.6%,以反映內房銷售及家具消費疲弱,並對2025財年毛利率預測上調0.4個百分點,以反映原材料成本降低對公司盈利能力正面的影響。另下調公司2025至2026財年每股盈測分別1%及7.8%。
該行對敏華目標價由8元下調至6.6元,考慮現價已反映負面因素,維持「買入」評級,預期2023至2026財年公司淨利潤年均複合增長率由原預期的13%下調至10%,較2019至2022財年水平低7個百分點。
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