惠譽博華對中國新能源電力行業展望「高景氣負面」
惠譽博華認為,光伏與風電已分別躍升為僅次於火電的中國第二大與第三大電源類型。然而,相較容量此消彼長,新能源對基礎電源的電量替代效應卻不甚明顯。火電仍為中國電力市場支柱電量提供者。去年火電在(主要)電源類型中的電量份額仍達69.9%,較「十三五」末的71.2%僅微降1.3個百分點。同期,風電與光伏電量份額分別為9.1%與3.3%,比重較「十三五」末各提升3.5、1.4個百分點。這一非對稱替代效應在新增電量結構中得以更為明確的體現。
此外,低碳願景下,電力部門的核心矛盾已由電源結構綠度不足轉為基礎電源充裕度不足,該趨勢與可能的應對措施將對今明兩年乃至日後更長時間的中國電力行業與企業的經營及信用產生持續影響。
惠譽博華認為,新能源電力生產部門將逐步面臨電量上網(消納)難度加大與交易價格漸趨下行的雙重挑戰。其中,源自電價的威脅相對較小。然而,電量上網挑戰對風光電站衝擊明顯更大,特別是在特高壓輸電通道建設,火電靈活性改造與輔助服務補償優化無法一蹴而就、抽水蓄能電站增量有限、儲能成本高企且難以響應日以上級別電力調峰需求的綜合情境下。
雖然電站(特別是集中式電站)投資方多為大型電力企業集團,其擁有強大的政府/股東支持以使其主體信用質量於短期內無走弱風險,但投資電站併網難必將導致大額折舊缺乏收入端支撐進而引發盈利水平下降與獨立信用狀況弱化,這對於中小型電站投資營運商尤為如此。因此,基於對電量與電價方面的雙重考量,惠譽博華對中國新能源電力行業展望為「高景氣負面」。
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