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研報掘金|國泰君安:維持中國東方航空“增持”評級 春運表現有望催化市場預期改善

國泰君安發佈研究報吿稱,維持中國東方航空“增持”評級,目標價5港元,考慮23Q4量價回落,下調2023年歸母淨利預測至-75(原-35)億元,2024/25年歸母淨利潤預測95/105億元。公司業績快報預計2023年歸母淨利潤-68至-83億元。其中,23Q3高油價下單季淨利超36億元,創歷史新高;23Q4受換季/天氣/淡季等影響致明顯虧損,市場預期較為充分。該行認為中國航空消費尚處初級階段,低滲透、低頻次、高公商三大特徵決定韌性良好,當下需求預期或已過於悲觀。2024年1月上半月航空需求恢復增長,且近期春運預售趨勢良好。預計2024年春運客流將創歷史新高,且票價較2019年升幅將有望超2023年暑運,有望催化市場需求預期改善。

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