《大行報告》大摩降恆指基本情境年底目標至16,000點 牛市及熊市情境目標各為18,500點及11,000點
摩根士丹利發表亞太區市場策略報告,下調對恆指基本情境2024年年底目標,由原來18,500點降至16,000點,此相當預測市盈率8倍,該行按「自上而下」方式料恆指成份股2023年至2025年每股盈利預測各升1%、6%及6%。該行亦下調國指基本情境2024年年底目標,由原來6,350點降至5,450點,此相當預測市盈率7.3倍,該行按「自上而下」方式料國指成份股2023年至2025年每股盈利預測各跌4%、升3%及升5%。
按在「熊市」情境下,大摩降恆指2024年年底相關目標由11,350點降至11,000點,此相當預測市盈率6.9倍,該行按「自上而下」方式料恆指成份股2023年至2025年每股盈利預測各跌2%、5%及2%。該行按「熊市」情境下予國指年底目標3,600點。
若按「牛市」情境下,大摩降恆指2024年年底相關目標由21,500點降至18,500點,此相當預測市盈率8.8倍,該行按「自上而下」方式料恆指成份股2023年至2025年每股盈利預測各升3%、8%及7%。該行按「牛市」情境下予國指年底目標6,200點。
大摩認為,中國市場面對債務、人口結構和通貨緊縮等挑戰、以及複雜的多極世界動態,MSCI中國股指數本回報率面臨下行壓力,未來估值倍數可能會保持在相對較低的水平。從估值角度來看,大摩對A股更具建設性,並注意到最近政策制定者討論了針對中國股市這部分市場的潛在市場支持措施。(wl/k)
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