《大行報告》招商證券升新東方(EDU.US)目標價至109美元 上季業績遠勝預期
招商證券發表報告指,新東方(09901.HK)(EDU.US)第二季業績持續超預期,增長勢頭更加穩固,主因新業務收入在本季保持按年增68%的快速成長,傳統教育業務,例如留學考培與諮詢以及國內考培分別按年增長等因素。該行預期寒假季度營收將加速成長,公司指引2024財年第三季營收預計將按年增42-45%,顯著高於先前市場所預期的20-25%。
該行上調對新東方和東方甄選(01797.HK)2024和2025財年盈利預測。新東方仍是其教育行業的首選,其美股目標價從104美元上調至109美元,港股目標價亦上調至85元,評級「增持」。
報告指,東方甄選在2024年上半年收入按年增長34%至28億元人民幣,符合預期。商品成交額增長 19%,達到57億元人民幣。該行預計,東方甄選2024和2025財年收入分別按年增長49%和8%,核心淨利潤率保持在約18%,對比2023財年的 24%有所下滑。儘管東方甄選利潤率承壓,但仍對新東方集團層面的利潤率擴張保持樂觀,這得益於教育業務經營效率的提升和規模效應,預計新東方集團2024和2025財年按年分別增長41%和21%,非GAAP淨利潤率為11.3%和13.9%。而基於持續投資帶來的盈利壓力而下調估值倍數,東方甄選目標價從42元下調至35元,評級「增持」。
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