《大行報告》招商證券﹕內銀估值吸引 推薦郵儲行(01658.HK)及工行(01398.HK)
招商證券發表報告指出,去年12月內地新增社會融資總額1.94萬億元人民幣,略低於市場預期。新增人民幣貸款1.17萬億元人民幣,按年減少2,401億元人民幣。總體貸款需求依然略顯疲軟。
該行認為,內地上月貸款數據持平,表明調節政策仍需持續發力以支持經濟。因此,儘管1月貸款市場報價利率(LPR)保持不變,人行宣布在2月5日下調存款準備金率0.5個百分點,這與該行之前認為存款準備金率可能進一步下調的觀點一致。該行的測試表明,存款準備金率下調0.5個百分點,可能會對銀行的淨息差產生較小的正面影響,並使銀行的利潤提高約1%;未來LPR/中期借貸便利(MLF)仍存在下調的可能性,可能會給銀行淨息差帶來壓力。
此外,該行指目前主要內銀今年平均預測市盈率約為3.3倍,預測市淨率約為0.34倍,估值不高。龍頭銀行現處於各自市淨率估值範圍的低端。長期而言,投資者可能會被該行業的低估值和潛在的穩定資產質量所吸引。維持行業「推薦」評級,推薦郵儲銀行(01658.HK),認為其總體資產質量良好;並推薦工商銀行(01398.HK),公司為行業龍頭,具備高股息率,業績穩定。
招商證券對內銀股投資評級及目標價表列如下:
股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元)
郵儲銀行(01658.HK) | 增持 | 5.85元
工商銀行(01398.HK) | 增持 | 4.8元
交通銀行(03328.HK) | 增持 | 5.55元
農業銀行(01288.HK) | 中性 | 2.9元
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