《大行報告》摩通:內銀優於券商 偏好建行(00939.HK)及郵儲行(01658.HK)
摩通發表報告指出,市場對內地衍生產品「雪球」的憂慮加劇,該產品被認為是近期在岸市場拋售的罪魁禍首,上證綜指年初至今已累跌6.9%。該行認為,相關衍生產品對整體市場表現的影響可能被誇大,但投資者對相關產品的損失,或會對券商以及在較小程度上對銀行收入產生負面影響。
該行認為,鑑於「雪球」產品的高風險性質,預期只有少數銀行透過其私人銀行部門分銷有關產品。此外,由於部分「雪球」產品被包裝為理財或信託產品,違反新規,監管機構在2019和2022年加強對「雪球」產品的審查,因此,有關產品僅佔該行覆蓋的券商整體場外衍生性商品業務的不超過15%,進一步收緊政策對收入的影響應有限或可控。不過,當局更廣泛地對場外交易業務(OTC)進行更嚴格的監管審查,或對券商今年上半年的相關收入勢頭產生不利影響。
該行仍然偏好內銀股而非中資券商股,內銀中首選建行(00939.HK)、郵儲銀行(01658.HK)和招商銀行(600036.SH),中資券商股則首選中信証券(06030.HK)和中國銀河(06881.HK)。
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