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《大行報告》高盛予H股「與大市同步」評級 按基本情境料「國家隊」今年股市淨買入2,800億人幣
阿思達克 01-23 11:23
高盛發表中國市場報告表示,對於中國股市投資者及參與者而言,過去三年無疑是充滿挑戰及令人沮喪的時期,中資股市場錄得累跌61%,總市值(A股+H股+ADR)計累跌30%,總體市盈率估值(A股+H股+ADR)亦累跌56%。自2021年以來,中國股市表現明顯落後於全球其他國家,目前估值受到抑制,基金持倉水平處於十年來的低位,投資者正在思考,隨著新的一年的到來,何時及在甚麼條件下才會出現期待已久的反彈。 該行認為,按基本面觀點屬建設性,預測2024年MSCI中國和滬深300指數的潛在回報分別為18%和19%,前提是假設當局採取有效的政策,料實際GDP增長約5%,每股收益增長約10%及估值適度復甦。然而該行亦認識到,鑑於複雜的宏觀挑戰,以及全球非常活躍的政治日程,其結果可能對中國股市產生影響,該行對中央政策預測的差異可能很大。 該行最近的投資者對談,提出了幾種可能的催化劑,有可能扭轉根深蒂固的負面預期和情緒,包括內地潛在推出全面而有力的寬鬆計劃、以需求方為重點的刺激措施、針對私人經濟的提振政策、政府對房地產和股票市場的支持、中美關係的改善與可預測性。高盛表示維持對A股的「增持」及對H股「與大市同步」評級。 高盛表示,從2023年汲取的重要教訓之一是,股票似乎很難與房地產市場完全脫鉤,房地產銷售和房價與房地產市場顯示出54%和41%的相關性。在此背景下,股票投資者可能會開始看到隧道盡頭的曙光,該行預測內地到2024年,房屋交易和房地產固定資產投資/新開工項目將有所改善,這意味著房地產市場的拖累今年對股市的影響可能會減弱。 在股票市場,正如日本和全球其他股票市場的經驗所顯示,政府直接支持可能是短期內提振情緒和股價的最有效方法。根據該行廣義的定義,中國「國家隊」已經在A股市場上變得更加積極主動,其形式包括直接購買精選的境內ETF、透過中央匯金增持某些指數權重股(國有銀行)的股份以及鼓勵股市上市國企部門的回購。 高盛列出投資者今年願望清單(Investor Wishlist),按今年基本情境預測中國「國家隊」淨買入達2,800億人民幣(對比2023年為970億人民幣),在「牛市情境下預測中國「國家隊」淨買入達1.2萬億人民幣。
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