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《大行報告》瑞銀:中資股風險回報具吸引力 約54%H股估值低於2015至16年低谷
阿思達克 01-19 11:30
瑞銀發表中國股票市場策略報告,指MSCI中國指數今年以來已累跌10%,跑輸全球其他市場約8%,目前估值相當於預測市盈率8.2倍,與2014年以來歷史低點相近。雖然最近中國經濟指標並未顯示出實質改善,但亦肯定沒有顯示出令股市所表現出的惡化程度。從外匯、大宗商品和固定收益市場來看,中資股股票投資者似乎比其他市場的投資者對該區經濟前景更為悲觀。 該行認為,由於中資股估值倍數處於谷底、投資者持倉較少以及來自中國「國家隊」的潛在支持,在此水準上的風險回報具吸引力。 瑞銀表示,2024年年初至今的股票拋售似乎與2016年初A股的經歷相似,是技術交易因素(如強制拋售和贖回),而不是經濟因素導致市場下跌。儘管如此,滬深300指數預測市盈率9.8倍,低於2016年低點的10.4倍,也接近2018年貿易戰期間的低點。同時,H股預測市盈率為7倍,也低於2016年的低谷,並且在ADR退市擔憂和新冠疫情捲土重來驅動的最近兩次拋售(分別為2022年3月和2022年10月)期間處於類似水準。 該行指,H股連日沽空佔總量的21%,接近歷史高點。雖然部份投資者希望比較中國與90年代日本的經濟經歷,當時日本股市從高峰70倍跌至30倍的低點,跌幅達57%,而MSCI中國指數也從2021年高峰至今累跌57%。從股票層面來看,A股和H股市場首100隻股票中約50%的股價低於2015至2016年低點。 瑞銀認為中國股市風險回報偏向上行,目前最合適的策略是以高股息股票作為核心投資組合,這將受益於保險基金和國家隊的潛在入市。該行亦指出約54%的H股估值已低於其2015年至2016年低谷,其中騰訊(00700.HK)目前預測市盈率13.6倍,較其2015年至2016年期間26.3倍,低48%。
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