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《大行報告》大摩料今年樓價跌一成 偏好領展(00823.HK)、希慎(00014.HK)及長實集團(01113.HK)
大摩發表報告指,從今年下半年開始,利率下調應有助於利息支出,但住宅市場需要按揭利率下調和市場情緒改善的支持,但這可能不會在今年發生,預計本港全年樓價下跌10%,重返2016年8月水平。 大摩預計,美國減息需要更長的時間才能惠及香港住宅市場。今年的實際按揭利率很可能維持在4%左右的水平,從而導致負利差,損害最終用戶和投資需求。截至2023年第三季,香港住宅市場的貨尾量增至2萬伙,為20年來最高。 大摩預計,今年上半年香港銀行同業拆息將比去年同期高出約100個基點,對高負債和浮動利率比例較高的公司不利。 該行認為,只有資產負債表強勁的公司才更有可能在這種環境下維持或增加股息,例如信和置業(00083.HK)、長實集團(01113.HK)、太古地產(01972.HK)。選股方面,相比寫字樓和住宅,該行傾向零售,推薦領展(00823.HK)、希慎(00014.HK)及長實集團;並予新世界(00017.HK)、恆地(00012.HK)和九龍倉(00004.HK)「減持」評級。 股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元) 領展房產基金(00823.HK) | 增持 | 48元 希慎興業(00014.HK) | 增持 | 20元 長實集團(01113.HK) | 增持 | 52元 恆基地產(00012.HK) | 減持 | 19.5元 新世界發展(00017.HK) | 減持 | 10元 九龍倉集團(00004.HK) | 減持 | 19元
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