《大行報告》富瑞:對本港負債比率相對高小型開發商信貸風險更謹慎
富瑞發表報告指,香港房地產正在成為新的風險來源。今年該行對本港負債比率相對高小型開發商信貸風險更謹慎,估計這些風險敞口可能會轉化為約57個基點的平均綜合成本率。中銀香港(02388.HK)主要專注於藍籌銀團,恆生銀行(00011.HK)和東亞銀行(00023.HK)的中小型企業風險敞口較多。
富瑞指,截至2023年6月,銀行對房地產行業的貸款達1.67萬億元,佔貸款總額23%。五大開發商即新地(00016.HK)、恆地(00012.HK)、長實(01113.HK)、新世界發展(00017.HK)、信置(00083.HK)的貸款佔房地產貸款21%。該行所覆蓋的其他主要業主,如領展(00823.HK)、恆隆(00010.HK)、九龍倉置業(01997.HK)、希慎(00014.HK)、太古地產(01972.HK)佔香港房地產貸款的10%。
根據該行估算,向風險相對較低的小型開發商提供的貸款約佔房地產貸款總額的5%,或佔在香港使用的貸款的1.19%。假設80%的貸款在香港使用,抵押率為40%,如果風險具體化,對香港銀行信貸成本的淨影響約為57個基點。對個別銀行的實際影響取決於其貸款組合。
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