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《大行報告》大華繼顯降中國乳製品行業至與大市同步 下調蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至24.1元
大華繼顯發表研究報告表示,對中國乳製品企業今年收入增長預期轉為較保守看法,因相信居民非必需消費將放緩,經銷商態度不再積極,相應將乳製品行業評級下調至與大市同步。 該行預計,中國乳業股毛利率將溫和擴張,同時企業仍有可能透過嚴格控制投資及進行針對性營銷,來實現淨利潤率擴張。伊利(600887.SH)及蒙牛(02319.HK)近日都宣布下調2023年收入預期,其中蒙牛表明要達成收入內生增長中單位數升幅方面存在有挑戰。 計及妙可藍多的整合,大華繼顯預測蒙牛2023年收入按年增長可能達到中至高個位數百分比。憧憬產品結構升級,伊利及蒙牛都預計今年收入增長會較去年快。 該行預期液態奶產品銷售增長疲軟,乳酪、嬰幼兒奶粉及芝士等其他品類收入復甦速度較預期慢,認為整個行業都缺乏催化劑,估值重估可能會推遲,改列伊利為首選,並將蒙牛目標價由39.3元降至24.1元,評級「買入」。
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