《大行報告》中金降綠城中國(03900.HK)目標價至11.41元 料去年業績平穩兌現
中金發表研究報告指,預計綠城中國(03900.HK)去年收入按年略增3%至1,305億元人民幣,毛利率跌2.5個百分點至14.8%,估計純利微升1%(未剔除永續債分派)。受惠於公司上半年贖回最後一筆永續債導致分派減少,預期剔除永續債分派後的純利按年增3%至64億元人民幣。
該行表示,公司債務結構健康、債券到期節奏可控,且自2022年11月以來持續回購境內債券,預計公司後續將持續加強與銀行端在開發貸款、雙邊貸款、境內發債等方面的合作,以對再融資形成進一步支撐。該行又估計集團目前未售貨值約4,200億元人民幣,是對銷售覆蓋倍數約兩倍,而且主要佈局一二線策略城,加上較穩健的財務表現可望支撐年內補充資源,相信公司今年銷售具備較強韌性。
該行維持對綠城中國2023年的盈測64億元人民幣,考慮到行業基本面疲弱令公司利潤率受壓,小幅下調2024年盈測5%至63億元人民幣,並料2025年盈利按年跌4%至60億元人民幣。該行將目標價下調16%至11.41元,維持「跑贏行業」評級。
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