惠譽:今年內地汽車市場競爭加劇 插電式混合動力汽車為主要增長引擎
惠譽信評表示,隨著國產汽車品牌加速推廣高水準的自動駕駛以及全球汽車品牌加快電氣化進程,2024年中國汽車市場競爭將繼續加劇。得益於與政府的穩固關係或強勁的財務結構及靈活性,惠譽授評的國有中資車企的評等展望將保持穩定,不過競爭激化可能會令其短期內的市場份額與盈利能力承壓,導致其在面對更高投資需求的同時現金生成能力減弱。
惠譽預期,在經濟呈現不確定性的背景下,2024中國國內小客車需求將小幅增至近2,200萬輛。然而其中,在電動汽車製造商激進定價以及消費者愈加青睞電動汽車的驅動下,電動汽車的市場份額或從2023年的35%左右進一步上升至42%至45%。惠譽認為,在中資及合資汽車品牌不斷推出新車型的助力下,插電式混合動力汽車將成為2024年汽車市場的主要增長引擎;而動力電池成本的下降、快充和換電基礎設施網路的擴張或拉動純電動汽車需求穩步增長。
2023年下半年,包括小鵬汽車和華為在內的中資電動汽車公司和供應商在高速公路解決方案的基礎上推出了城區高階智能駕駛導航輔助系統,明年預計將有更多車企入局。上行風險亦可能來自穩定傳統燃油車需求的相關政策,但惠譽預計監管機構對混合動力汽車等低排放技術的支援力度將相對更強。
惠譽預期,繼2020至2023年超過70%的複合年增長率後,2024年中國的汽車出口量將穩定成長20%至30%。中國汽車出口面臨的監管風險正不斷攀升;但鑒於中國強勁的成本優勢和激烈的國內競爭,這些風險不太可能阻擋中國製造電動汽車的出海步伐。不過,新興市場和中國汽車品牌的貢獻度提升或帶來出口市場的結構性變化。中國汽車製造商的海外產能投資規模料將擴大,對目標市場的選擇將取決於監管環境及潛在的市場範圍。
汽車製造商和供應商之間的新一輪併購與戰略聯盟或推動汽車市場在2024年進一步整合。由於動力電池成本大幅下降且第三方供給充足,車企在中國自建電池廠的緊迫性較低。但為實現汽車智慧化,這些企業可能會加強內部研發及外部合作。特別是全球汽車產業或將加大在中國的研發投入並尋求併購機會,以壓縮其智慧電動汽車的研發週期。(ca/w)
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