瑞銀:今年內房仍下滑惟較去年改善 料新房成交面積錄得7%跌幅
瑞銀內地/香港房地產投資研究部主管林鎮鴻表示,今年內房行業仍處於下滑階段,但相信不論是新房成交面積、新開工、竣工及投資等方面,均較2023年有所改善。他預料,今年新房成交面積錄得7%跌幅,並將新開工預測由10%跌幅收窄至7%跌幅,主要是預料城中村改造的一半項目將為新房成交作出貢獻。
他表示,內房庫存將會持續下跌,整個去庫存周期或持續兩年時間,若城中村改造呈顯著效果,料庫存最快於2025年1月回到正常水平,同時有助提升開發商效率。至於2025年,他預料新房成交面積跌5%、竣工跌15%,而新開工則平穩下來。
他提到,未來內地房地產發展商逐漸轉型,由開發住宅轉至發展輕資產管理,尤其是內地民企,主要是他們融資能力有限,未能從政府推出的三大工程受惠,故他們未來或專注物業管理業務,作為其新市場空間發展。(ca/cy)
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