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《大行報告》瑞銀微降騰訊(00700.HK)目標價至418元 料上季經調整淨利潤按年升35%
阿思達克 01-09 10:18
瑞銀發表報告指出,投資者關注近期網絡遊戲監管草案的影響和意義。騰訊(00700.HK)一直與監管機構密切合作,並認為市場可能對有關消息反應過度,應正面解讀當局迅速及主動澄清回應、支持訊息和行動(版號批准)。總體而言,騰訊遊戲組合主要由高日活躍用戶(DAU)及低每月每戶平均收入(ARPU)組成,因此其影響可控。而更重要的是,有關規定目前仍處於草案階段。 在遊戲增長方面,該行認為雖然騰訊持續保持現有遊戲的活力,但遊戲增長將取決於新遊戲的發布時間。《元夢之星》有個好開始,騰訊可利用QQ、微信等社交資產,並與其他短視訊平台合作推廣。更多內容計劃在農曆新年期間發布。小遊戲方面,騰訊是最大的休閒遊戲平台,小遊戲擁有4億月活躍用戶(MAU),其中50%的玩家與應用程式基礎遊戲不重複。 因此,對騰訊來而言是一筆增量的高毛利收入。隨著遊戲引擎的不斷完善,更高品質的小遊戲將吸引更多玩家。 此外,騰訊管理層重申對高品質增長的關注,盈利增長或將超過收入增長。至於美國的人工智能(AI)晶片禁令下,騰訊有重大機遇,可將其領先的AI混元大模型融入其現有業務,以增強用戶體驗和變現,並將繼續優化晶片部署效率。 該行預期騰訊去年第四季收入按年增長7%,經調整淨利潤或升35%。該行對公司2023至2025年經調整淨利潤預測微調1%,料收入增長放緩,但毛利有所改善。而騰訊仍為該行首選股,因其於宏觀環境波動下盈利增長明顯,對其目標價由419元微降至418元,評級「買入」,料2023至2025年盈利年均複合增長率15%,現價相當於2024年市盈率預測14倍,估值仍相對較低。
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