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《大行報告》交銀國際:紅海航運危機或考驗美降息預期 需警惕美元及美債收益率反彈令風險資產回調
阿思達克 01-08 14:37
交銀國際發表研究報告指,紅海為國際重要航運要道。每年約有1.7萬船隻通過該海域,佔全球航運總量約12%,全球集運總量的30%,及全球油運的16%。這次紅海危機導致該海域石油及其他貨物運輸接近中斷。途經該海域的國際航運船隻被迫繞行好望角,導致航運運力下降和成本上升,並擾動全球供應鏈。 該行提到,雖然近日美國宣布聯合護航行動以恢復紅海航運,但目前未有任何跡象顯示胡塞武裝會停止攻擊,令部分國際航運巨頭短暫恢復紅海航線後又無限期中斷了海域航行。同時,伊朗近期遭遇恐怖攻擊進一步加劇中東緊張局勢。地緣緊張局勢籠罩下,紅海航線未能確定恢復時間。 交銀國際相信,紅海局勢於短期內仍有較大不確定性,全球航運運力或暫難快速恢復,並導致供應鏈壓力再度上升,進而帶動商品價格上漲,令美國通膨上行風險加劇。而中東油運受阻令航運成本上升,油價上漲。同時,伊朗遇襲進一步加劇中東緊張局勢,令原油供應前景不確定因素上升。另外,該行料歐洲地區或加大對美國原油的進口,以保障能源供應安全。美國原油出口量近期已開始上升,預計其出口量將進一步上升,進而增強其經濟韌性,並可能推動美元、美債殖利率反彈上升。 該行認為,紅海局勢恢復穩定仍具有一定的不確定性,供應鏈壓力或令美國通脹風險上升,且美國原油出口上升或支撐其經濟韌性,兩者或考驗美國降息預期。目前市場對於美聯儲的降息預期仍然樂觀。該行重申對於降息的審慎判斷,即降息時點可能較市場預期遲,降息幅度同樣小於市場預期。投資者需警惕美元、美債收益率反彈令風險資產回調。
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