《大行報告》匯豐研究升神華(01088.HK)目標價至30元 派息穩固爲優質防守性股份
匯豐環球研究發表報告,指由於資金流入防守性股份,中國神華(01088.HK)近三週股價跑贏指數。該行認爲歸因於板塊輪轉,保險公司等資金在宏觀不確定及今年大概率減息下,尋求具防守性的高質素收息股。報告稱,神華派息穩固,屬優質防守性股份,將其H股目標價由23元升至30元。
該行稱,今年動力煤的需求及供應增長料將放緩,致現貨價格持續降溫。該行估算秦港5500動力煤價將按年跌12%至每噸850元人民幣。供應面方面,內地本土煤產量按年增幅料放緩至2%,低於去年的3%增長。同時,該行恢復對俄羅斯及蒙古煤炭徵收進口關稅,料在去年高基數下今年進口量將按年持平。今年工業領域需求料仍呆滯,而水力發電產能復甦料壓抑煤電產出以至對動力煤的需求。
匯豐研究指以70%派息比率推算,料2024年神華H股股息率達8%。其高股息及強勁現金生成將在經濟下行時提供保護。考慮定價具韌性,公司有較高銷售佔比以合約形式進行,較少受現貨價格波動影響,提升銷售均價預測,並上調2023年至2025年每股盈利預測各4.9%、1.4%及26.1%,因現時估值合理,相當於預測今年市賬率1.2倍,予H股評級「持有」。
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