《大行報告》麥格理削百勝中國(09987.HK)目標價31%至236元 下調盈測
麥格理髮表報告指,中國消費在去年第四季再度下滑,去年10月及11月規模化餐廳銷售的複合年增長率較2019年分別爲9.2%和8.5%,而且其同行麥當勞亦已將產品提價。該行認爲,這並不是一個良性競爭的信號,因爲消費疲弱仍然是一個關鍵問題,而激烈的競爭格局未有改變。該行預期百勝中國(09987.HK)旗下肯德基和必勝客去年第四季的同店銷售增長分別爲8%和10%。
該行表示,由於基數較低,預計集團去年第四季的餐廳利潤率將按年錄得反彈,但隨着基數變得正常,今年首季將面臨挑戰。該行料今年餐廳利潤率可能會達到16.6%的高峯,並在2025年逐漸下降至15.4%。該行分別下調集團2023至25年盈測分別3.2%、13.6%、11.4%,並修改估值方法,由現金流折現率改爲市盈率,以今年預測市盈率15倍爲基礎,削目標價31%至236港元,以反映對其盈利複合年增長率僅爲高個位數的預測。
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