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《大行報告》花旗一舉降港鐵(00066.HK)評級至「沽售」 目標價大削44%至26.5元
花旗發表報告,將港鐵(00066.HK)投資評級由「買入」連降兩級至「沽售」,目標價大削近44%,由47元下調至26.5元。報告指,基於對本港樓市的最新預測,估計今年(2024年)需求持續疲弱,導致發展商降低平均銷售價格,並削弱發展商回補土地儲備的意欲。由於該行預測今年本港住宅樓價下跌10%,以及估計港鐵小蠔灣站及東涌東站項目投標預付費減少一半,將港鐵每股資產淨值(NAV)估算由52.11元下調約7%至48.45元,並引用較大的NAV折讓幅度45%為估值基礎,以反映本港樓市的負面氣氛。 該行指,東涌東站第一期物業項目流標,反映發展商關注高利率、高建築成本、以及2029年項目落成的時間表,估計港鐵需要減低原先預算的11億元投標預付費,以增加項目吸引力,而小蠔灣站項目情況亦相同,該行估計預付費用可能減半,但在目前的宏觀經濟環境下,不排除最終要減至零預付。 該行認為,雖然土地投標延遲,港鐵可能需要籌集過渡貸款應對,但相信仍然維持漸進的派息政策,該行預計2023及2024年度每股派息分別1.33元及1.35元,相信上調空間有限,而折算股息率約5厘,對於尋求收益的投資者未算吸引。
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