大行評級丨花旗:將港鐵評級連降兩級至“沽售”、目標價削44%,不排除招標項目預付額降至零
花旗表示,因應今年香港住宅樓市需求仍然疲弱,加上內地和香港經濟前景黯淡,相信會令地產發展商降低銷售單價,同時削弱地產發展商回補土地儲備的意願,而在住宅樓市負面情緒籠罩下,預期會拖累港鐵(0066.HK)的業績表現,因此將港鐵評級由“買入”連降兩級至“沽售”,目標價削44%至26.5港元。港鐵旗下東湧東站第一期物業發展項目去年沒有收到任何標書,花旗認為,東湧東站地皮流標,反映地產發展商對高利率、高建築成本及2029年東湧東站落成的時間表感到憂慮,相信港鐵最終將不得不下調投標的預付費用(原本為11億港元),以提高項目的吸引力,而小蠔灣車廠項目料會採取同樣措施。即使該行已預期港鐵會將投標的預付費用降低一半,但考慮到目前的宏觀環境,不能排除預付費用降至零的可能性。花旗指,儘管土地招標日期押後,或會導致港鐵需要募集過渡貸款,但相信港鐵循序漸進的股息政策仍然維持,預期港鐵會於2023年及2024年每股派息1.33港元及1.35港元,折算股息率約5釐,對追“息”一族來説並不吸引。港鐵(0066.HK)最新跌4%報28.65港元。
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