《大行報告》招商證券:考慮到政策風險 降網易(NTES.US)評級至「中性」
招商證券發表報告指,針對上周五(22日)中國在線遊戲的《網絡遊戲管理辦法》草案徵求意見稿出台,將對遊戲變現模式產生潛在重大影響。該意見稿顯示出偏緊的政策態度,但具體細節及潛在影響仍待觀察。考慮到政策風險,下調網易(NTES.US)評級至中性,美股目標價降至88美元,H股目標價降至137港元;維持騰訊(00700.HK)增持評級,目標價378港元,以反映騰訊更加多元化的業務結構受政策影響更小。
招商證券認為,最關鍵的問題是用戶充值限額。潛在的限額對於依賴少數重氪玩家的遊戲的變現模式具有顯著影響(高ARPPU,例如60%的收入來自1%的玩家),例如RPG、SLG和卡牌類遊戲。而對於每日登錄和充值獎勵的監管措施也將對大DAU遊戲產生影響,如MOBA和FPS。意見稿透露出政策收緊的意向,但目前仍缺乏具體實施細則,例如對以上各類限制的明確定義,該行預計明年將會有更多關於意見稿的討論,對意見稿內實施細節和實施時間不宜過早下定論。
在遊戲變現面臨嚴格監管的悲觀情況下,該行認為這將對整個在線遊戲生態系統產生重大影響,包括遊戲開發者、遊戲廣告商和直播等各個方面。由於缺乏具體實施細節,例如充值限額,該行認為難以量化潛在的政策影響。為反映政策風險,調低騰訊和網易的EV/EBITD目標估值倍數33%/42%,分別至8倍/7倍,先前均為12倍。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.