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《大行報告》高盛:相信市場已部分反映短期繞航好望角情況 中遠海能(01138.HK)潛在得益可能高於中遠海控(01919.HK)
高盛發表報告指出,繼胡塞武裝多次在紅海襲擊船隻後,包括馬士基、地中海航運(MSC)、赫伯羅德(Hapag Lloyd)及達飛海運(CMA)等多家貨櫃航運公司宣布暫停途經紅海和蘇伊士運河的航線。受此影響,中遠海能(01138.HK)H股股價周一(18日)上升7%,中遠海控(01919.HK)H股當日亦升6%。對於歐洲航線,航運公司將不得不繞經南非好望角。 該行假設,如所有貨櫃航運公司都從蘇伊士運河改道至好望角,且沒有其他替代方案,相關需求將上升12%;如所有油輪都從蘇伊士運河改道至好望角,且無其他替代方案,預期原油油輪的需求將增加8%,成品油輪的需求將增加9%。 此外,該行相信,如相關情況於短期內持續,市場或已部分反映,而中遠海能及中遠海控均能受惠,因運輸距離更長帶來更高的需求,以及貨櫃船、原油油輪和成品油輪的運費近期上升。考慮到油輪淨需求前景較好,中遠海能潛在得益可能高於中遠海控。 該行對中遠海控H股的目標價為6.5元,評級「沽售」;並對中遠海能H股予以「買入」評級,目標價9.8元。
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