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第一太平戴維斯:零售業反彈乏力和對外貿易表現失色 料再削弱物流需求
阿思達克 12-15 17:26
第一太平戴維斯發布今年12月工業樓宇銷售及租賃報告指出,面對物流行業所面臨的挑戰,本地用家主導市場。第一太平戴維斯表示,物流行業近幾個月出現下滑,進口和出口量均於第三季按年分別下降2.8%和6%。這直接影響到貨櫃吞吐量,按年大幅下跌了13.4%。然而,航空貨運吞吐量發展正面,第三季按年增長7.6%。 為本地零售和餐飲業提供服務的本地第三方物流供應商(3PL)貨運代理亦面臨業務停滯的環境。儘管與今年第一季度相比,第二季度零售銷售和餐廳收入保持穩定,但無論是本地還是遊客在零售和餐飲方面的消費都未如最初預期般強勁。 隨著物流需求持續下降,倉庫租戶並不積極擴展。即將到期的租戶難以為節省成本而搬遷,因為高息和相關資金成本會抵銷節省的租金。因此,第三季的租賃活動主要集中在續租而不是新的投資。整體和現代化倉庫租金在第三季分別輕微向下調整0.5%和0.2%。 零售業反彈乏力和對外貿易表現失色預計將進一步削弱物流需求。但是,電子商務的持續增長有望在未來幾個月為物流市場提供一定的支持。考慮到新的物流需求的稀缺,預計未來兩年租戶到期的倉庫,業主將提供靈活的租賃條款,以保持出租率。預計市場將從2025年開始恢復增長,隨著新倉庫的逐步佔進駐及中國經濟的完全恢復,將帶來更多的供應回到國內,香港將受益匪淺。 第一太平戴維斯副董事總經理暨九龍銷售部主管蕭兆新指,高昂的資金成本仍然限制著銷售市場,導致交易量進一步受限。只有在減息時,才可能看到投資市場出現積極的交投,預計將在2024年底或2025年初開始減息。
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