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《大行報告》麥格理降內地三大油股每股盈測 反映油價預測下調
麥格理發表報告指,國際油價自9月以來明顯調整,明年全球原油庫存繼續增加,需求增長未明確,估計油價仍有下跌風險。非油組成員國的供應強勁,抵銷油組及盟友減產的短期利好作用,引致市場平衡、油價下跌。該行商品團隊估計2024年、2025年及2026年,布蘭特原油平均價格分別每桶77美元、64美元及66美元,較原先預測分別低6%、1%及1%。 因應最新的油價預測,該行將內地主要油股2023年至2025年的每股盈利預測,下調1%至14%,目標價維持不變至下調23%。當中中石化(00386.HK)目標價由5.5元下調至5.3元,中石油(00857.HK)目標價維持3.5元,中海油(00883.HK)目標價由11.6元下調至8.9元。 該行認為,中海油管理層致力提升儲量及生產,資本開支將會持續上升,在派息比率40%之下,預期2025年扣除派息前的自由現金流將會轉為負數,考慮其現金流轉差下,將其評級由「中性」下調至「跑輸大市」。
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