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《大行報告》中金調低蔚來-SW(09866.HK)目標價至82元 毛利率及現金流改善
中金發表報告指出,蔚來-SW(09866.HK)(NIO.US)第三季實現營收190.7億元人民幣,按季增長117.4%;非公認會計準則(non-GAAP)淨虧損39.5億元人民幣,第二季淨虧損54.5億元人民幣,按季有所收窄。該行指公司第三季業績在規模效應帶動下毛利現金流兌現改善,費用控制良好,符合市場預期。 該行認為,近日蔚來連續與長安汽車(000625.SZ)、吉利汽車(00175.HK)簽署換電業務的戰略合作協議,公司通過對外合作,有望分攤換電業務重投入重運營的壓力,帶動經營效率提升,改善財務表現。該行指公司換電資產價值逐步獲得產業認可,有望收獲更多換電合作夥伴。 展望第四季,該行料蔚來在保持規模效應的同時,預計降本增效有望支持汽車毛利率增長至15%。此外,公司阿爾卑斯車型將於明年下半年正式上市,期待公司進入全新增長軌道。 該行維持對蔚來今年盈利預測,公司聚焦穩促銷、保利潤戰略,考慮到行業競爭及阿爾卑斯量產,下調其明年扣非盈利至虧損129億元人民幣(前值為虧損99億元人民幣)。考慮到板塊估值回調,分別下調港股和美股目標價18%及19.2%,至82港元及10.5美元,港股及美股評級均為「跑贏行業」。
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