《大行報告》大摩:內地科網股明年料受制宏觀疲弱 首選拼多多 看好網易、騰訊、新東方、騰訊音樂及百度
摩根士丹利發表報告指,內地科網股今年輕微跑贏內地股市,但個別股份表現分化,認為明年仍然受制於宏觀因素疲弱,由非市場風險主導個別股份表現,市場關注內容具有適應能力的龍頭股份、具有獨特增長潛力及人工智能概念的股份。當中遊戲及音樂內容供應商,例如網易(NTES.US)、騰訊(00700.HK)及騰訊音樂(TME.US)繼續展現韌性。同時關注在本地或海外市場具有獨特增長機會的拼多多(PDD.US),教育股新東方(EDU.US)及好未來(TAL.US)。人工智能緩慢地應用,不過仍然認為百度(BIDU.US)具有建設意義。
上述股份均屬大摩投資推薦,評級均為「增持」,當中拼多多為首選。至於阿里巴巴(BABA.US)、美團(03690.HK)、京東(JD.US)、嗶哩嗶哩(BILI.US)評級為「與大市同步」。
該行預期明年電商、本地服務及廣告的行業增長,分別為7%、22%及11%,雲業務有12%溫和復甦,遊戲及音樂分別增長9%及22%。內地科網行業明年收入增長10%,經營溢利增長23%,股本回報改善40點子至17.5%。
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