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《大行報告》瑞銀:比亞迪(01211.HK)盈利能力潛在提升 近期股價疲弱重申「買入」評級
瑞銀發表報告指出,比亞迪(01211.HK)對部分車型提供額外5,000至1萬元人民幣的折扣,導致該股股價過去三日跌一成。該行指投資者對於比亞迪在價格戰、經銷商庫存及華為競爭等議題上表示憂慮。 該行透過比較比亞迪過去三年的批發、保險登記和出口數量來計算其經銷商庫存,估計截至10月份,比亞迪經銷商庫存約為1.8個月,略為高於行業1.7個月的水平,但考慮到即將到來的冬季旺季,相信範圍可控。 而本輪降價後,該行指比亞迪車型平均折扣達到1萬元人民幣,相對於去年幾乎是零折扣,此外還推出規格和價格較低的「冠軍版」系列。然而,由於鋰價較低,年初至今每輛車的成本已下降1.5萬至2萬元人民幣,而規模經濟和工程優化可能有助於進一步節省成本。比亞迪的降價不僅與原材料通縮一致,相對於同業而言亦較為溫和,如Tesla(TSLA.US)及蔚來(09866.HK)今年迄今均降價超過3萬元人民幣。 華為競爭方面,該行指華為一直專注於高端市場及其軟體件能力,而比亞迪雖然嘗試向高端化車型發展,但其重點仍關注於制動系統、越野能力及智能懸架方面,相信公司每年300萬輛銷量的龐大規模,加上垂直供應鏈整合和系統整合能力,應足以面對近來華為的競爭。 該行認為在高端化、出口貢獻、成本優化和原材料通縮下,比亞迪盈利能力潛在提升,該股近期股價疲弱,重申對其「買入」評級,目標價360元。
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