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《大行報告》摩通下調郵儲行(01658.HK)目標價至4.1元 評級「中性」
阿思達克 11-20 11:03
摩根大通發表研究報告指,郵儲銀行(01658.HK)的股價年初至今跑輸四大國有銀行約25個百分點,與四大行的估值溢價亦由年初的50%,收窄至目前的14%,認為表現遜色主要是由於利潤增長令人失望。 考慮到收入前景受壓,以及管理層對撥備管理的保守立場,摩通預期該行股價跑輸的情況仍會持續至2024年,因此預計郵儲行的ROE將向四大行水平靠攏,估值溢價將進一步收縮,維持「中性」評級,認為現時撈底為時過早。 摩通又指,郵儲行明年利潤增長前景不太可能恢復正常水平,預測內地按揭利率下調及保險費削減,將會拖低2024年收入約5%,盈利增長則預期與四大銀行相若,達到中低單位數百分比增幅,將2023至2025年盈利預測下調3%、4%及6%,目標價由4.35元下調至4.1元。
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