《即日市評》港股向下 阿里急挫一成 藥明合聯首掛受捧
受阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及美團(03690.HK)等弱勢拖累,恆指今日(17日)持續向下。克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行主席梅斯特指市場關注美國減息為時過早,直言放鬆貨幣政策並不是目前討論的話題,美股道指及納指隔晚各跌0.13%及微升0.07%。執筆之時,美國10年期債券孳息跌至4.385厘,美匯指數升至104.38,道指期貨最新升60點或0.17%,納指期貨最新跌0.02%。上證綜指全日升3點或0.11%收3,054點,深證成指升0.25%,兩市成交額共8,267億人民幣。
恆指今早低開248點後跌幅擴大,曾跌419點一度低見17,413點,全日跌378點或2.1%,收17,454點;國指跌142點或2.3%,收5,974點;恆生科技指數跌69點或1.7%,收3,980點。股票印花稅下調生效首日,大市全日成交總額979.89億元,滬、深港通南下交易淨流入24.79億及29.57億元人民幣。
恆指本周累升250點或1.5%、國指本周累升73點或1.2%及恆生科指本周累升87點或2.3%。美國10月通脹率低於預期,市場估計美國加息周期或已見頂,市場亦憧憬內地向城中村改造及保障性住房注一萬億人民幣資金。中美元首近日亦在三藩市會晤,同意加強對話合作,而國家主席習近平指合作共贏完全可以超越分歧。
【成交不足千億 阿里下挫一成】
騰訊(00700.HK)全日股價跌近3%收315.2元,京東(09618.HK)走低2.4%,美團(03690.HK)及快手(01024.HK)股價各下滑3.9%及2.3%,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股價急挫近10%收73.25元。阿里健康(00241.HK)下滑6.3%,高鑫零售(06808.HK)走低3.9%。摩根士丹利發表報告,維持騰訊「增持」評級及目標價430元,並取代阿里巴巴(BABA.US)成為該行首選股份。
中金發表研究報告指阿里再公布經營戰略調整,不再尋求完全分拆雲智能集團,同時盒馬上市計劃暫時擱置,業務發展方向從獨立分拆及融資,轉為尋求協同和平衡,並強調探索新的資本管理和回報股東方式。中金預期阿里核心電商業務短期經營壓力仍然存在,季內淘寶天貓GMV按年下跌,客戶管理收入按年增長3%,預計變現比率仍有一定釋放潛力。該行將阿里標價下調20%至109元,維持「跑贏行業」評級。
【跌股一千隻 藥明合聯彈】
港股今日市寬續弱,主板股票的升跌比率為15比25(上日12為比27),下跌股份1,072隻(跌幅2.7%),恆指成份股今日14隻股份上升,65隻股份下跌,升跌比率為18比81(上日為11比86);大市今日錄沽空148.37億元,佔可沽空股份成交額813.42億元的18.24%(上日23.563%)。
藥明生物(02269.HK)分拆的藥明合聯(02268.HK)首日掛牌,全日收28元,較上市價20.6元高35.9%,成交額達17.15億元,每手賬面賺3,700元,而藥明生物則跌1%。
富瑞發表報告,首予藥明合聯「買入」投資評級及(基本情境)目標價28元,此相當於2024年及2025年企業價值對EBITDA各39倍及24倍、預測市盈率分別51倍及30倍,在「牛」情境下可上望40元。該行指,藥明合聯的業務罕見且獨特,從事抗體藥物偶聯物(ADC)合同研究、開發及製造組織,認為公司是中國最佳的中型醫藥企業之一,料藥明合聯於2022年至2027年銷售、EBITDA及經調整盈利的複合增長率各達54%、70%及64%。(wl/u)
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