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《大行報告》瑞銀料內地雙十一GMV錄高單位數增長 符預期
瑞銀發表研究報告指,據中國郵政郵政局數據顯示,11月首十一日的包裹量達52.6億件,按年升23.2%,單計雙11當日則按年升15.8%至6.39億件,但預料平均售價呈按年跌幅,因競爭激烈,各大購物平台給予較大折扣;消費者轉趨審慎消費;及滲透低線城市。根據該行觀察,日常必需品銷情較價格高的貨品為佳。該行料,內地雙十一商品總交易量(GMV)錄高單位數增長,符合預期,其中短視頻平台如抖音及快手(01024.HK)應會繼續引領增長。 該行指,雙十一GMV呈強勁增長,關鍵在於消費趨勢未來能否持續下去;在主要促銷活動期間,前期需求大致上回升,而因消費者變得更加理性,該行預料年底前需求會較疲軟或回復正常。該行表示,今年在618促銷活動後,7月份則見到相似情況。同時,該行指在經濟下行周期,拼多多(PDD.US)性價比較高的定位或能繼續跑贏同業。 在眾多電商平台股中,該行最看好阿里巴巴(09988.HK),因集團為中國宏觀經濟和消費復甦的指標,加上其估值不高,其次是拼多多及京東,前者盈利增長強勁,估值合理;後者定位中檔,及其估值吸引。(ca/k) ~
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