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《大行報告》匯豐研究料銅價中期維持高企 行業首選洛鉬(03993.HK)
匯豐研究發表報告指,即使銅市場供應增加,但來自電網的需求增長、可再生能源安裝及電動車生產可消化未來兩年絕大部分新增銅供應。因此該行料銅價將於每噸約8,200美元水平徘徊,直至2025年起供應增長放緩。這段時間內銅價未必再創新高,但料高於2015至2020年水平。 報告稱,近期銅市場供應受阻情況僅溫和。今年下半年新供應主要來自非洲及南美洲,呈集中且進展符預期。不過,2024年上線的新供應較分散及有較高的延誤或供應受干擾風險。而2025年新上線銅供應料按年大減。 此外,倫敦金屬交易所(LME)近期銅庫存急增,主因供應增加及歐美需求疲弱。該行相信涉及季節性因素,每年這個時間庫存增加並不令人意外。此外,LME銅庫存是在極低基數下急增,現庫存水平較歷史而言仍低。中國銅庫存亦很低,因此該行認為銅價下行風險有限。 該行補充,由於供應增加及中國以外市場需求疲弱,近期銅價回軟,但該行認為洛鉬(03993.HK)及五礦資源(01208.HK)盈利有望上行,受惠礦山生產擴張及部分市場撤銷出口管制帶來的更高付運量。 匯豐研究認為洛鉬是行業首選,其在新產能開發上有良好進展;其盈利增長有望快過同業,2022至2025年盈利年均複合增長料達23%,增長集中於2024年發生。該行近日亦首予紫金(02899.HK)H股「買入」評級及目標價15元,料紫金2022至2025年盈利年均複合增長料達13%。 匯豐研究對本港上市銅業股最新投資評級及目標價,表列如下: 股份|投資評級|目標價 紫金(02899.HK)|買入|15元 洛鉬(03993.HK)|買入|6.3元 江銅(00358.HK)|買入|13.6元 五礦資源(01208.HK)|買入|2.9元
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