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中銀香港(02388.HK)料美國通脹未來數月或於3%水平波動
儘管第三季度歐美股市出現調整,但今年以來仍然呈現上漲格局,中銀香港財富策略及分析處高級財富策略師張詩琪認為,這反映市場預期歐美通脹將會下降以及美聯儲的加息週期即將結束。同時預計第四季美國通脹將會下行並於低位徘徊,未來數月或許於3%水平波動。 展望第四季度的投資策略,張詩琪認為美債有望開啟「熊轉牛」的重要拐點期,因此投資者可著重固定收益的配置。一旦美聯儲加息進程結束的趨勢確定下來,美債便有可能在第四季度後半段時,表現優於其他資產,為投資者提供明年獲利的機會。總體來看,不管是目前影響美債的基本因素,還是估值的絕對優勢,均顯示美債現時處於歷史上最佳的配置區間,投資者應趁債息高位時吸納並增持。 股票方面,由於中國逆週期調節政策全面發力,微觀指標開始改善,宏觀經濟亦企穩復甦。張詩琪相信當市場信心提振及估值修復後,將會有利 A 股表現。至於美股上半年憑著人工智能熱潮帶動下進入牛市,及後於第三季度見頂回落,修正了市場早前的樂觀情緒。基於美聯儲控制通脹的決心和高利率對經濟的滯後效應,張詩琪預期或會為美股企業盈利和估值進一步帶來壓力。然而,投資者亦不可忽視美國經濟的韌性,因此宜等待美股調整後才吸納。 至於油價方面,基於地緣政治及產油國的供應等影響供求的短期因素,預期油價將在高位區間波動。外匯方面,張詩琪認為美元單邊上行的趨勢難以持續,預期美元指數於第四季度總體仍然呈上落格局,但難以延續第三季度單邊上行的趨勢,並且有機會於最後一次加息後轉向。
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