《大行報告》中金:李寧(02331.HK)經營進入調整期 下調目標價至36.41元
中金發表報告指出,李寧(02331.HK)第三季李寧品牌(不含李寧YOUNG)全平台零售流水按年增長中單位數,同店銷售按年下滑中單位數。該行認為,去年第四季受疫情影響,李寧品牌(不含李寧 YOUNG)流水按年降10%至20%低段。
該行認為,今年以來隨零售環境好轉,李寧管理層預計流水增長有望按季改善,同時開始調整對經銷商的發貨節奏以緩解經銷商壓力,並計劃在第四季繼續加強渠道管控和庫存清理,以促進長期高質量增長。但在較為激烈的競爭環境下,管理層預計下半年毛利率改善面臨一定壓力,同時品牌宣傳及管理優化也將帶來費用率按年提升。
李寧管理層指引今年不利因素疊加下收入按年增單位數水平(此前指引為10%至20%中段增長),明年將通過品類聚焦、增加奧運營銷投放以促進生意增長。
該行考慮到李寧銷售增長有限及公司費用投放增加,下調其今明兩年每股盈利預測18%及19%,至1.42及1.72元人民幣,當前股價對應今明兩年市盈率19與15倍,維持「跑贏行業」評級。考慮公司經營進入調整期,下調目標價至36.41元,對應今年市盈率23倍,有21%的上行空間。
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