《季績前瞻》券商料渣打(02888.HK)第三季基本除稅前溢利14億至15億美元 關注業務展望
摩根士丹利本月初發表報告料渣打集團(02888.HK)將於明天(26日)公布第三季度業績。市場憧憬受惠本港銀行同業拆息上升令淨息差擴闊,中金及大摩預測渣打2023年第三季基本除稅前溢利分別為14.05億及15.17億美元,較2023年第二季16億美元按季下跌12.2%及5.2%。因渣打指就2022年基本表現剔除退出中東地區市場及業務、航空融資及債務價值調整作出重列,故各券商對重列去年同期基數預測不盡相同,本文不提供綜合券商按年變幅預測。
中金及大摩預測渣打2023年第三季基本經營收入43.66億美元及44.87億美元,較2023年第二季45.55億美元按季各下跌4.1%及1.5%。市場將關注渣打管理層對業務展望、派息及股份回購的最新指引。
【料淨息差擴闊 撥備壓力較低】
大摩估計渣打今年第三季基本除稅前溢利錄15.17億美元按季跌5%(市場同業料約14.49億美元),估計上季基本經營收入44.87億美元按季跌1%,料淨利息收入24.89億美元按季跌2%,料撥備支出2.37億美元按季升62%,並估計非利息收入19.98億美元按季跌6%。該行料渣打第三季成本收入比率為63%(上季為62%)、料普通股權一級資本比率為13.8%(上季為14%)。
中金預計渣打今年第三季基本除稅前溢利錄14.05億美元按季跌12.2%,料淨利潤9.91億美元,估計淨利息收入25.21億美元按季升3%,料淨息差1.72%(按季擴闊1個基點)。由於渣打在香港的貸款以住房按揭佔比較高,當前有關貸款因封頂息率影響,對本港銀行同業拆息上升並不敏感,淨利息收入主要敏感性來自美元及其他貨幣。該行料第三季並非渣打淨利息收入高點,因明年部分短期對沖工具到期,有望支持單季淨利息進一步上升。此外,由於第三季市場波動性回落,料金融市場業務收入按季及按年均下跌。該行亦預計,渣打第三季撥備為1.98億美元,低於市場預期,基於公司在內地地產風險敝口佔比不高,且已較充分撥備,進一步撥備壓力較低。
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中金及大摩預測渣打2023年第三季基本除稅前溢利分別為14.05億及15.17億美元,較2023年第二季16億美元按季各下跌12.2%及5.2%。
券商│今年第三季基本除稅前溢利預測│按季變幅
大摩│15.17億美元│-5.2%
中金│14.05億美元│-12.2%
按渣打今年第二季本除稅前溢利16億美元計
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中金及大摩預測渣打2023年第三季基本經營收入43.66億美元及44.87億美元,較2023年第二季45.55億美元按季各下跌4.1%及1.5%。
券商│基本經營收入預測│按季變幅
大摩│44.87億美元│-1.5%
中金│43.66億美元│-4.1%
按渣打今年第二季基本經營收入45.55億美元計
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