《大行報告》中金料內地9月線上實物商品銷售額按年增長放慢至4.6% 滲透率按月略降
中金發表研究報告指出,根據國家統計局公布數據測算,9月線上零售總額(包括實物和虛擬物品)1.28萬億元人民幣,按年上升8%,增速相比8月的9.5%有所放緩,2021年9月至2023年9月年均複合增長率(CAGR)為7%。第三季線上零售總額3.7萬億元人民幣,按年提升8.8%。9月線上實物商品銷售額按年升4.6%至1.1萬億元人民幣,較8月的按年上升6.1%增速有所放緩。
但9月日均線上實物零售額按月提升10%,增速較8月的8%仍在提升,反映日均線上社零逐月趨勢仍在恢復中。第三季線上實物商品銷售額3萬億元人民幣,按年上升5.2%。至於9月線上虛擬物品銷售額按年上升28.3%至2,197億元人民幣,2021年9月至2023年9月CAGR為10.5%。第三季線上虛擬物品銷售額6,765億元人民幣,按年提升28%。9月線上購物滲透率達26.7%(線上實物銷售額佔社會零售總額的百分比),較去年同期的26.9%持平略降(今年8月滲透率為26.3%)。第三季線上購物滲透率達到26%,高於去年同期的25.8%。9月線下零售額按年上升5.8%至2.9萬億元,較8月的4.1%升幅有所提升,2021年9月至2023年9月CAGR為3.1%。第三季線下零售額按年上升3.9%至8.47萬億元。
該行預計,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)第三季收入按年增長9%,平台貨幣化率上行主要得益於中小商家投放意願增加;預計調整EBITA按年增長16%,主要由於有效控費。對該股目標價137元,評級「跑贏行業」。
該行此前將第三季京東集團(09618.HK)(JD.US)收入按年增速從4.5%下調至1.4%;但預計第三季宏觀疲軟下公司營銷投放或較為節制,維持對京東季內的利潤率預測。該行維持個股盈利預測、估值和評級。對其美股目標價為44美元,評級「跑贏行業」。
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