《大行報告》高盛降百度(09888.HK)目標價至177元 下調第三季收入預測
高盛發表研究報告指出,百度(09888.HK)(BIDU.US)於11月披露第三季業績前,該行下調其線上營銷和人工智能雲領域的收入預測,考慮到廣告預算延遲及企業與政府雲開支疲弱,該行亦對百度的經營利潤率預測作出調整,同時亦反映了於文心大模型4.0的培訓和行銷增量開支。
該行預期,市場近期將焦點轉向百度核心增長與利潤放緩情況,或蓋過公司技術創新如文心大模型4.0的推出及文心大模型於消費者與企業的變現進展。然而,百度第三季表現溫和,該行相信公司第四季將復甦,廣告及雲業務有所改善。
中期而言,該行相信百度已就大型語言模式培訓累積足夠的先進圖像處理器(GPU),而文心大模型4.0亦已做好商業化準備。
該行指出,百度現價相當於2023年預測市盈率12倍,淨現金佔市值的比例超過30%,風險回報持續良好。基於對公司收入預測下調,以及在文心大模型方面的投資增加,該行下調公司2023至2025年盈利預測3%,另削收入預測2%至4%,H股目標價由193元降至177元,美股目標價由197美元下調至181美元,維持「買入」(確信買入名單)評級。
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