《大行報告》花旗料內銀股首三季撥備前利潤按年跌3.8% 行業首選建行(00939.HK)
花旗發表報告,預期17間該行覆蓋的內銀,首九個月撥備前利潤按年下跌3.8%,差過上半年的下跌3%,主要因為費用收入及交易收益疲弱。稅後淨利潤按年升2.9%,升幅較上半年的3.5%放緩,估計除了中國銀行(03988.HK)、交通銀行(03328.HK)及民生銀行(01988.HK),大部分內銀第三季撥備前利潤倒退,稅後淨利潤增長持續放緩。
在該行覆蓋的內銀中,估計上海上市的浦發銀行(600000.SH)第三季表現最差,盈利按年倒退28%;中信銀行(00998.HK)表現最佳,盈利按年升12%;預期民生銀行季績勝預期;平安銀行(000001.SZ)則可能令市場失望。
雖然該行預期第三季業績相對疲弱,但對內銀保持正面,主要因為估值偏低,已反映投資者對內銀資產質素前景的關注。由於上市內房商的不履約貸款改善,地方政府融資平台能夠以較長期及較低成本進行再融資,相信對資產質素的憂慮得以緩和。
在內銀中,該行偏好H股大型銀行,現價相當於今年市賬率0.33倍、股息率9.4%,反映相關股份被投資者過份不公平對待,行業中首選建行(00939.HK)。
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