劍橋科技(603083.SH):LightCounting的數據偏保守
格隆匯10月13日丨有投資者向劍橋科技(603083.SH)提問:LightCounting預測明年需求800萬之後可能會到1,000萬以上,然後到2027年1,400萬,市場預期可能不是這樣一個線性的逐漸增長的邏輯,而是説明年可能就會到1,300~1,400萬,然後2025、2026年可能看不清,反而是擔心需求出現衝高回落的態勢,請問公司怎麼看?
劍橋科技回覆:LightCounting的數據偏保守,且指的是實際發貨的數量。現在各家供應商加起來説的是訂單數量,這中間的差異通常有25%~30%甚至更多,因為訂單下達後供應商不一定能馬上發貨。LightCounting預測數與實際數沒有太大差別,只是存在時間差。現在市場很明確的是將來算力是要提升上去的,不光是AI新增了需求,傳統數據中心和數據網絡的數據也在增長,這是毋庸置疑的。現在因為整個經濟情況不太確定,客户下單趨於謹慎。一方面,可能計劃數量很多,但實際發貨量並沒有那麼多;另一方面,前兩年因為疫情再加上一些物料短缺,客户積累了很多庫存,首先要降低庫存,從而延緩了新的訂單。經濟大環境的不確定性、計劃的不確定性和庫存的壓力共同造成了短期需求的回落。還有一項不確定是交換機芯片,只有新一代交換機芯片到位才能與800G適配。否則會暫時回到400G或200G一段時間,800G緩一緩再上。800G技術本身已經沒有太大問題,各方面相對穩定了,再加上現在LPO技術發展得非常快。但是從經濟大環境和供應鏈來看,配套的交換機上來可能還有一段時間,所以可能會出現階段性走低再上升的情況。
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