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《大行報告》大和下調阿里-SW(09988.HK)目標價至137元 評級「買入」
大和發表研究報告指,預計阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)2024財年第二季的收入按年增長7%至2,217億元人民幣,非通用會計準則EBITA增15%至415億元人民幣,略低於市場預期。 該行預計集團旗下的淘寶/天貓、地區服務及菜鳥業務的收入增長將會放緩。考慮到中國線上零售額按年增長放緩,並較預期弱,該行料淘寶/天貓集團2024財年第二季客戶管理的按年增長由6%降至3%,較首季的按年增長10%有所下降,將菜鳥收入增長預測由2024財年第二季的按年30%下調至20%,並將地區服務收入預測由增長20%降至16%。該行認為,儘管宏觀經濟疲弱,但淘寶平台近期的發展應該會增強其中長期的增長前景,又相信公司與微信的合作將改善用戶定位,推動淘寶每日活躍用戶增長。 該行下調集團2024至26財年的每股盈測4至5%,以反映公司對淘寶、天貓和國際業務的投資。另外,該行考慮到菜鳥近期潛在的IPO估值,及將淘寶2024財年目標市盈率由7倍下調至6倍,重申其「買入」評級,目標價由151元下調至137元。
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