惠譽:原油價格高企疊加經濟復甦疲弱 抑制中國煉油產業利潤
惠譽評級預期,今年下半年中國國有石油石油公司的煉化和行銷業務利潤按年將會增長,這是受惠於國內需求較2022年下半年逐步改善,且裂解價差相對較低推動中國成品油出口量走強。然而,若原油價格持續高於每桶80美元,則成本無法全部轉嫁,這疊加整體經濟復甦或進一步疲軟,將抑制下游產業的利潤增長趨勢。
煉化板塊的供給和需求均在一定程度上有所復甦。今年首八個月原油加工量較去年同期增加11.9%。柴油、汽油和航空煤油消費量回升至疫情前的水平。儘管柴油需求增長率在2022年高基數的基礎上有所放緩,但仍具有韌性。
今年首八個月天然氣表觀消費量按年增7.4%,低於惠譽先前預期的高個位數增速,原因在於暖冬、疫情在第一季持續影響,以及整體經濟回暖態勢弱於市場預期。由於需求反彈和液化天然氣(LNG)進口價格具有競爭力,天然氣進口量增加。惠譽預測,受惠於進口成本下降和銷售價格上漲,今年天然氣進口損失將收窄。此外,中國正擬定更透明的天然氣成本傳導機制,此等傳導機制可降低國營石油公司銷氣利潤的波動性。
惠譽預期,煉化業務的改善和天然氣進口損失的收窄有助於增強中國石化(00386.HK)、中石油(00857.HK)及其母公司中石油集團的財務狀況。受高油價及穩健產量的支撐,僅從事上游業務的企業中海油(00883.HK)延續強勁表現。
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